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Markets right now are confusing.
The major indexes experienced massive falls followed by a rapid recovery. Over my 40-year career, I don’t think I’ve ever seen such an extreme move. Typically, when markets tank, it can take months or even years to recover.
But the major indexes are pushing back toward all-time highs. So traders face a dilemma…
A slowing economy and tariff uncertainty should put a cap on the market moving much higher.
Yet the big institutional players don’t seem to have much appetite to short the market.
When the market’s stuck in a “no-man’s land” like this, it can be difficult to know what to do next…
Watch Volatility
Some traders think they’ve always got to be in the market. After all, you can’t make money sitting on the sidelines.
But trading is different from so many other professions. Sometimes the best action is to take no action at all.
Everyone has a finite amount of capital. You can’t afford to fritter it away on low-probability trades. Unless you find a strong setup, you should be happy to pass on a trade.
Yet even with a promising setup, another reason to pass on a trade is volatility…
For example, when you buy an option, you want to buy when volatility is low but rising. Rising volatility causes option premiums to rise. That gives a tailwind to your option position.
But if volatility is sky-high already, it may be wise to let that trade go. Even if you get the trade direction right, falling volatility can erode the value of your option and lead to a loss.
And there are other times when it’s best to sit tight…
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When Things Don’t Make Sense
As a trader, I spend my day putting together clues on what the market is going to do next.
That means following key economic releases (like inflation and job numbers), bond prices, commodities, currencies, and company earnings. Plus, we have to anticipate interest rate moves from the Federal Reserve.
All these things have the potential to move the market. Yet the weight these various factors carry over the market is always changing.
Take inflation… As it continued to ramp higher post-COVID, people feared that it would force the Fed to keep raising rates, putting pressure on stocks.
Yet now, tariff uncertainty means people are closely looking for any rise in unemployment to gauge if the economy is slowing down. (That could cause stocks to fall.)
And this is where discipline becomes key…
If the market action doesn’t make any sense or the right trade setup isn’t there, then it’s best to just leave it alone.
As difficult as it may be, it’s better to patiently wait for the market to come to you.
You don’t always have to trade. And knowing when not to trade will have a big bearing on your success as a trader.
Regards,
Larry Benedict
Editor, Trading With Larry Benedict
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